Monday, March 12, 2012

Travel & Tourism forecasting for 2012: 100m jobs and $2 trillion GDP in 2012

Travel & Tourism is set for a milestone year as the industry's direct contribution to the global economy is expected to pass $2 trillion in GDP and 100 million jobs. According to research by the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), the global Travel & Tourism industry will grow by 2.8% in 2012, marginally faster than the global rate of economic growth, predicted to be 2.5%.

This rate of growth means that Travel & Tourism industry is expected to directly contribute $2 trillion to the global economy and sustain some 100.3 million jobs. When the wider economic impacts of the industry are taken into account, Travel & Tourism is forecast to contribute some $6.5 trillion to the global economy and generate 260 million jobs – or 1 in 12 of all jobs on the planet.

In 2011, Travel & Tourism's total economic contribution, taking account of its direct, indirect and induced impacts, was US$6.3 trillion in GDP, 255 million jobs, US$743 billion in investment and US$1.2 trillion in exports. This contribution represented 9% of GDP, 1 in 12 jobs, 5% of investment and 5% of exports.

David Scowsill, President & CEO of WTTC, said: "In 2012, when international travellers are expected to surpass one billion for the first time, the industry will pass two other major milestones: a direct contribution of $2 trillion to the world economy and 100 million jobs. But these numbers are dwarfed by the total forecast contribution of our industry – $6.5 trillion to the global economy and 260 million jobs."

Over the medium-term, the prospects of the industry are even more positive with average annual growth expected to be 4% through to 2022 by which time Travel & Tourism will employ 328 million people – or 1 in 10 of all jobs on the planet.

David Scowsill continued: "It is clear that the Travel & Tourism industry is going to be a significant driver of global growth and employment for the next decade. Our industry is responsible for creating jobs, pulling people out of poverty, and broadening horizons. It is one of the world's great industries".

Other selected highlights from the research show:

South & Northeast Asia will be the fastest-growing regions in 2012, growing by 6.7%, driven by countries such as India and China where rising incomes will generate an increase in domestic tourism spend and a sharp upturn in capital investment, and recovery in Japan

After an extremely challenging 2011 when civil unrest and violence had a dramatic impact on demand for Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, North Africa is showing signs of recovery in 2012 with Travel & Tourism direct GDP growth forecast at 3.6%. Morocco (8.3%) will be the star performer of this region as negative perceptions of security continue to affect tourism in Egypt and Tunisia

In the Middle East, where civil unrest and violence in some countries continues, growth will be more subdued (3%), although there are stark differences at country level. Qatar will grow fastest at 13.2% while Syria will likely see another dramatic fall, estimated at 20.5%, as the political situation worsens, increasing concerns over security. It is worth noting that 14% of all international arrivals in the Middle East in 2010 were for Syria, the second most important destination in the region after Saudi Arabia

The mature economies of North America and Europe will continue to struggle in 2012. North America, which is saw a slight upturn in the USA's economic situation at the end of 2011, should see growth of only 1.3% in Travel & Tourism direct GDP over the year

The prospects for Travel & Tourism growth in Europe in 2012 are precarious. Current forecasts suggest a 0.3% increase in Travel & Tourism direct GDP for the region overall, but this will be propped up by newer economies such as Poland and, of course, Russia. A decline of 0.3% is expected across the European Union. Consumer spending is set to tighten as austerity measures kick in, and there continues to be considerable uncertainty around the future of the Eurozone and peripheral economies of Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal.

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WTTC is the forum for business leaders in the Travel & Tourism industry. With the Chairs and Chief Executives of the 100 foremost Travel & Tourism companies in the world as its Members, WTTC has a unique mandate and overview on all matters related to Travel & Tourism. WTTC works to raise awareness of Travel & Tourism as one of the world's largest industries, employing approximately 258 million people and generating over 9% of world GDP.

Retrieved from http://www.hospitalitynet.org/news/154000320/4055237.html

One billion tourists key to creating jobs and stimulating the economy

The one billion international tourists expected to travel this year are a vital force for economic growth and social welfare said UNWTO Secretary-General, Taleb Rifai, opening the ITB Travel Trade Show (Berlin, Germany, 6 March 2012).

“By the end of 2012, one seventh of the world’s population will have crossed international borders as tourists in a single year,” said Mr. Rifai in his keynote speech at the official opening of ITB.

This “extraordinary number” will contribute to more jobs, higher income possibilities and countless opportunities for development, so critical at this time of economic uncertainty, he added.

"With growth comes responsibility," continued Mr. Rifai. Tourism, if properly planned and managed, can be one of the most promising sectors for achieving a more economically, environmentally and socially sustainable future, he said.

“Imagine how business models would be transformed if one billion people demanded sustainable practices from hotels and tour operators. Imagine how many would benefit if one billion people bought local produce or hired a local guide. These are small actions, but given the size of our sector, their impact would be huge.”

Referring to the challenges facing international tourism as it reaches one billion, the Secretary-General spoke of the many people still facing barriers to travel. “Complicated, lengthy and overpriced entry formalities are making it extremely difficult for tourists, especially from emerging economies which are leading growth in terms of outbound markets, to travel,” said Mr. Rifai, adding that obstacles such as  burdensome visa processes are not just a barrier to travelers, but to “growth, job creation and free trade.”

The Secretary-General called on the tourism sector to unite around the issue of travel facilitation as a means to stimulate demand and, as a result, create jobs. “Travel facilitation must top our agenda and we must speak together on this if we are to be heard at the highest levels of decision-making,” he said. “It is in this belief that UNWTO has joined the voices of the sector such as the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the World Economic Forum (WEF), to advance this important issue.”



UNWTO (Berlin, 06 Mar 12)
Retrieved from http://media.unwto.org/en/press-release/2012-03-05/one-billion-tourists-key-creating-jobs-and-stimulating-economy-unwto-secret

Thursday, December 8, 2011

The system model for stages of the menu change at Derby

A sustainable management is the ultimate goal of every organization. They have to think about how to make the successful change, because a change needs always risks instead. The Derby Dining Center could be a good model to apply the system model for changing its menus. In order to complete my model, I refer to the evaluation model of Spears (1995), the organizational change strategy of eight stages from Dr. Barrett (2011), and the article about managing organizational change from Jonathan (2010).

First, I consider the eight stages for the organizational change. However, I would like to largely decrease from eight stages to three steps.

[Step 1: Recognition & Planning]



In the first step, managers can recognize the need to change from the response of customers, satisfaction of customers or employees, or the change the sales. For instance, a number of visitors would be reduced, or the satisfaction score of the recent survey would be worse. In this system, the sign transfers from the output such as the responses to the feedback and to the control part.

1. Increase Urgency: Managers or an owner do not have to be angry from the sign, because the continuous change is the absolutely required process to an organization. Thus, they should share the need for change with each team managers. Mangers have to feel the changing taste of students.

2. Build the Guiding Team: One of options to reduce negative risks from new change is to consist of the guiding team with right and enthusiastic people who represent each part (manager group, employee group and customer group) as a task force team. This guiding team should have both information about new trend and proper skills.

3. Get the vision right: The goal has to be clear in order to throw a pinpoint shot. Also, the map which indicates the point has to be easy for anyone to understand. In this case, the goal will be both "to find the next popular menu of Derby" and "to increase the satisfaction and benefit".
 
[Step 2: Action]



After step 1, the guiding team leads the organizational changing, especially the development of the menu. Major processes are related to the communication, rewards, and many achievements.

4. Communicate for buy-in: We know the importance of the effective communication in an organization. The sales workers, cooks and managers of each team have to join the communication to find the new menu. The guiding team can lead the discussion and experiments. Also, the guiding team can use diverse devices or tools like social media, the internet club, or the opinion board to get diverse idea such as recent trend, students' opinion about the meal at Derby. So the guiding team can move into the all sections to motivate the communication and to share the process.

5. Empower Action: The organization has to set the reward as well as the goal. The rewards involves not only external motivation like money, prize, or promotion, but also internal motivation like opportunities, praise or achievement. I think that the external motivation is more effective because Derby is a hierarchy structure and has lots of part-time employees.

6. Create Short-Term Wins: The strategy needs to set the smaller objects to vitalize the work. The caption of the task force team considers short-term goals like small evaluations for the new products and tastes or temporary competitions.

[Step 3: Maintenance]

Although one change was successful, the needs and preferences of students' always change. Thus, all managers and employees should be ready to find next menu. To improve next change, the good and bad results of prechanges should be memorized.

7. Don’t let up.: The good result of the development of new menu and the well-launched change should be shared. The sharing would make all members keep their good attitude toward next the menu change. Also, Derby should always observe the output and feedback for next changes.

8. Make Change stick: To remain the atmosphere of changing, recording and memorizing is a crucial task because the story can evoke the know-how of the success although lots of members would be changed. Also, recording the problem or the influence from the organizational change can help the next process.